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Abstract

Despite near term uncertainty in the market, the optical communications industry is well positioned for growth in 2011-2015. Record sales of optical components and modules in 2010 are an early indication of the industry wide recovery. While growth in the optical networking equipment market lagged behind sharp increases in components sales last year, equipment sales are expected to accelerate in 2011. A slowdown in component sales reported by suppliers in early 2011 should not last for more than a quarter or two and this market will return to growth in the second part of 2011, as fluctuations in the industry supply chain even out. Lightcounting expects growth rates in the optical component market to remain higher than the networking equipment market over the next several years, since optics accounts for an increasingly larger fraction of equipment vendor cost and revenue.

The forecast report presents an analysis of infrastructure upgrades of the top ten network operators, a summary of trends in the networking equipment market and a detailed analysis of the forecast for optical components and modules. The forecast database (offered as an Excel file) includes historical data from 2008 to 2010, as well as a forecast through 2015 for optical components and modules used in Ethernet, Fibre Channel, SONET/SDH, CWDM/DWDM, wireless infrastructure, FTTx, and high performance computing applications. Historical sales data for the period from 2008 to 2010 is based on data from more than 30 transceiver vendors, including 25 vendors that shared confidential sales data with LightCounting. The market forecast out to 2015 is based on LightCounting's model which correlates transceiver sales with network traffic growth and projected subscribers of FTTx systems.

Table of Contents

Abstract:...............................................................................................................................................................................2
Executive Summary...........................................................................................................................................................2
Section 1: Carrier Capex Overview.................................................................................................................................7
Section 2: Top Ten Carrier Hightlights........................................................................................................................11
Section 3: Trends in the Global Telecom Equipment Market..................................................................................15
Section 4: Trends in the Datacom Equipment Market..............................................................................................16
Section 5: Telecom Transceiver Forecast..................................................................................................................17
Section 5.1: CWDM and DWDM Transceivers...........................................................................................................18
Section 5.2: SONET/SDH Transceivers......................................................................................................................22
Section 5.3: FTTx Transceivers.....................................................................................................................................24
Section 5.4: Optical Modules for Wireless Infrastructure.........................................................................................27
Section 6: Datacom Transceivers................................................................................................................................28
Section 6.1: Ethernet Transceivers..............................................................................................................................29
Section 6.2 Fibre Channel Transceivers....................................................................................................................36
Section 6.3 Optical Interconnects................................................................................................................................38
Section 7: Forecast Methodology.................................................................................................................................42

Figures

• Figure 1: Global sales of optical transceivers (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 2: Growth rates of network traffic and bandwidth
• Figure 3: Sales of optical transceivers used in SONET/SDH, CWDM/DWDM, FTTx and wireless networks
• Figure 4: Sales of FTTx modules, optical interconnects, and transceivers used in wireless infrastructure
• Figure 5: ITU statistics on usage of mobile and wireline services
• Figure 6:  WDM transceiver unit shipments by data rate (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 7: Shipments of 40 Gbps ports by modulation format
• Figure 8:  Tunable 10-Gbps WDM transceiver unit shipments by form factor (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 9: Sales of SONET/SDH modules by data rate
• Figure 10:  Sales of OC-192 transceivers by form factor (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 11:  FTTx Transceiver unit shipments by type (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 12: Sales of Optical Modules used in Wireless Infrastructure
• Figure 13: Sales of datacom optical transceivers by application (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 14:  10GigE transceiver unit shipments by reach (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 15:  10GigE unit shipments by transceiver form factor (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 16:  Ethernet transceiver unit shipments by data rate (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 17:  40GigE and 100GigE transceiver unit shipments (Forecast)
• Figure 18:  Fibre Channel transceiver unit shipments by data rate (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 19:  Optical interconnect sales by major product categories (Historical data and forecast) 

Tables

• Table 1: Global Transceiver Sales Growth Forecasts per Segment
• Table 2: Characteristics of Current and Next-Generation PONs
• Table 3: Aggregated Bandwidth of Interface Modules by Market Segment (historical and forecast data)

Database Template

March 2011 Forecast - template