The Active Optical Cable Market Analysis & Forecast Report (December 2009)

$3950 (USD) per report

"All eyes are on the ‘copper-optical border tension’ as the data rate crosses the 10G sound barrier where it is becoming harder and harder to implement.” Observes Brad Smith, Snr. Vice President and Lead Analyst, LightCounting. “ Going forward, many protocols are advancing towards line rates of 25G InfiniBand, 32G Fibre Channel, 12G SAS and 40GigE - the copper optical war will intensify and spell opportunity for optical suppliers. This has become a space to watch.”

The AOC market presents true revenue growth opportunity and brings with it market expansion into areas traditionally dominated by copper interconnect, enabling optical suppliers to penetrate further into the datacenter. No doubt the AOC products will spread to other protocols but also identified are some real important market timing issues and viable threats.

Active optical cables (AOCs) emerged on the communications and consumer electronics scenes only recently, the result of collaboration among key market players like IBM, Intel, and Sun Microsystems to eliminate shortcomings in existing solutions, like high power consumption and latency. The cost and feature benefits of AOCs proved valuable enough to create a noteworthy market segment in 2009, despite the general economic downturn and executives’ initial skepticism concerning the scope of influence for AOCs. Given the growing significance of the AOC market, and the need to address the perhaps overblown claims circulating in the media regarding the impact of this segment on the wider market, LightCounting has chosen to add the AOC market to its growing list of researched markets to forecast. Taking into consideration the profiles of key vendors, current statistics for AOC implementation and sales, and forces driving the development of AOC and similar new technologies, LightCounting paints a clear and compelling picture of this fledgling market as it now stands and forecasts the trajectory of this market through 2013. AOCs are poised to become a disruptive force within the communication market; technical innovations from this segment are promising, though applications in consumer electronics are not predicted before 2013.

Sections:

• Executive Summary
• AOC Market Grows Amid Confusion
  • Expected Impact of AOCs
  • LightCounting’s Position Summary
  • Understanding the Importance of AOCs
  • Total Cost of Ownership Plays More Important Role
  • History and Development of AOCs
• AOC Product Overview
  • AOC Product Types
  • Parallel Optics Segment Poised for Significant Growth
  • Understanding the Role of InfiniBand in the AOC Market
  • Disambiguating InfiniBand Terminology
  • HPC InfiniBand Interconnect Architectures
• New Enabling Technologies Emerge
  • Converging Forces with the Right Timing
  • AOC Technologies Impacting Transceivers and Copper Cable Markets
  • 10Gbps Becomes the New Interconnect Currency
  • Small Changes Generate Feature and Benefit Gains
    • Closing Off Photonics to the Outside World
    • New Integration and Innovative Manufacturing Techniques
    • Innovation Blooms with Relaxed Interoperability Constraints
    • Introduction of Silicon Photonics
  • Unique Benefits of a Closed Photonics System in Active Optical Cables
    • AOCs May Enable Use of Very Fast VCSELs
    • Silicon Photonics Enable Extremely Sensitive Photon Detection
    • AOC Silicon Photonics Enable Very Fast Modulation
    • AOCs Enable Radically Lower Electrical Power Consumption
    • Known Reaches Offer Benefits
    • Usual Multimode Fiber and 850-nm Wavelength Is Not Required
• AOC Competitive Landscape
  • AOC Vendor Landscape
    • Large Companies
    • Venture Funded Start-ups
    • AOC Subassembly and Electronics Suppliers
  • LightPeak’s Potential Impact
  • AOC Passive and Active Copper Competition
    • Passive Copper
    • Parallel Optic Transceivers
    • Passive and Active QSFP Direct Attach (QSFP DA) Copper
• Forecast and Analysis
  • The AOC Analysis and Forecast Methodology
  • Market Erosion and Overall Expansion
  • Demand Factors
  • Early Confusions as the Market Establishes Its Footing
  • AOC Market Forces and Forecast Unknowns
    • Market Driving Forces
    • Market Limiters
  • Unit Shipments Forecast and Analysis
    • Analyzing the 4x Shipment Data
    • Analyzing the 12x Shipment Data
  • Pricing Forecast and Analysis
    • Analyzing the 4x Pricing Data
    • Analyzing the 12x Pricing Data
  • Revenue Forecast and Analysis
  • Revenue Analysis
  • Conclusions

Figures:

• Figure 1-1: IBM’s Roadrunner HPC Showing AOCs
• Figure 1-2: Sun Microsystems Constellation Subsystem Supporting Ten 12x10Gbps CXP AOCs
• Figure 2-1: AOC Examples
• Figure 2-2: Main InfiniBand MSAs
• Figure 2-3: HPC Interconnect Architectures
• Figure 3-1: Disruptive AOCs Will Impact Traditional Transceiver Markets and Protocols
• Figure 3-2: Examples of Cabling Waterfalls
• Figure 3-3: AOC Simplified Transceiver Construction
• Figure 3-4: Luxtera’s New Silicon Photonics Technologies
• Figure 5-2: 2009 and 2013 Shipment Breakouts By Data Rates
• Figure 5-3: AOC Average Selling Price and Forecast 2007-2013
• Figure 5-4: AOC Forecast 2007-2013

Tables:

• Table 2-1: InfiniBand Data Rate Terminology
• Table 3-1: Protocols and Speed Roadmap
• Table 5-1: AOC Unit Shipments and Forecast 2007–2013
• Table 5-2: 2007-2013 Units Shipments Forecast By Data Rates
• Table 5-3: AOC Average Selling Price and Forecast 2007-2013
• Table 5-4: AOC Revenue and Forecast 2009-2013
• Table 5-5: AOC Unit Shipment, Prices, and Revenue and Forecast 2007–2013

*All the data listed above is also available in Excel spreadsheet formats upon request. Please contact megan@lightcounting.com to requests the .XLS worksheets or more information.