“By 2015, traffic is expected to grow one-hundred-fold while operators seek an equivalent reduction in the cost of bit transport,” says Roy Rubenstein, director of research, LightCounting. “Optical technology will play a key role in meeting such tough requirements as carriers tackle operating costs and reduce the number of nodes they operate in the network.”

The rise of optical will clearly be good news for transceiver vendors but they face their own challenges. The burden of meeting such cost targets will fall most heavily on them. Transceiver players must determine which technologies to make in-house, when to apply photonic integration, and execute when partnering to tackle costly technology developments such as 100Gbps.

Will transceiver players rise to the challenge and most importantly will they be rewarded for their efforts?

This report presents historical data from 2005 to 2007 and a detailed market forecast through 2011 for SONET/SDH, Ethernet, Fibre Channel, CWDM, DWDM, FTTx transceivers, and optical interconnects, sorted in over 100 product categories. The sales data for 2005 to 2007 account for sales among 33 transceiver vendors, including 23 vendors that shared confidential sales data with LightCounting. The market forecast for 2008 to 2011 is based on a model correlating transceiver sales with network traffic growth and projected subscribers of FTTx systems.

Sections:

Executive Summary
Section 1: SONET/SDH Transceiver Market
Section 2: Ethernet Transceiver Market
Section 3: Fibre Channel Transceiver Market
Section 4: CWDM and DWDM Transceiver Market
Section 5: FTTx Transceiver Market
Section 6: Optical Interconnects Market
Section 7: Forecast Methodology

Figures:

Figure 1. Worldwide Transceiver Sales: Historical Data and Forecast
Figure 2. Transceiver Sales by Market Segments: Historical Data and Forecast
Figure 3. Sales of 10-Gbps, 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps Modules by Application
Figure 4. Sales of SONET/SDH Transceivers by Data Rate
Figure 5. Sales of SONET/SDH by Form Factor
Figure 6. Sales of Ethernet Transceivers by Data Rate
Figure 7. Shipments of 10GBASE-SR Transceivers by Form Factor
Figure 8. Sales of Optical 10GigE Transceivers by Standard
Figure 9. Sales of Fiber Channel Modules by Data Rate
Figure 10. Sales of CWDM and DWDM Transceivers by Data Rates
Figure 11. Sales of FTTx Transceivers by Type
Figure 12. Sales of Optical Interconnects
Figure 13. Utilized Bandwidth in Core Telecom and FTTx Access Networks –Multiple Scenarios

Tables:

Table 1. Comparison of Optical 10GBASE Technologies
Table 2. Expected distances for 40GigE and 100GigE
Table 3. Characteristics of Today’s and Tomorrow’s PONs
Table 4. LightCounting Aggregated Traffic Capacity Growth Projections
Table 5. List of Transceiver Vendors Included in this Report

Appendices:

Appendix A. Historical Data and Forecast for SONET/SDH Transceiver Shipments
Appendix B. Historical Data and Forecast for Ethernet Transceiver Shipments
Appendix C. Historical Data and Forecast for Fibre Channel Transceiver Shipments
Appendix D. Historical Data and Forecast for CWDM and DWDM Transceiver Shipments
Appendix E. Historical Data and Forecast for FTTx Transceiver Shipments
Appendix F. Historical Data and Forecast for Optical Interconnect Shipments
Appendix G: Forecast for Detailed Optical Port Shipments

*All the data listed above is also available in Excel spreadsheet formats upon request. Please contact megan@lightcounting.com to requests the .XLS worksheets or more information.