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The Optical Transceiver Market Forecast Report (March 2010)
$3950 (USD) per report 
"While next-generation 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps optical interfaces are garnering
most of the attention, the charge back from the 2009 market bottom is being
led by 10-Gbps transceivers, which have really come into their own in both
telecom and datacom markets and are projected to contribute the lion's share
of industry profits over the next few years," said Scott Schube, Senior
Analyst. "Encouragingly for transceiver vendors, pricing for 10-Gbps
modules remained relatively steady in 2009 even as volumes increased, boding
well for the health of the industry."
LightCounting maintains its projections for 2010 transceiver sales, as global sales of optical transceivers are expected to reach pre-recessive levels. LightCounting transceiver sales survey results point to a deeper-than-expected slump in 2009, but the upsurge in sales during the last half of the year point to a sharper recovery within the communication sector.
Considering encouraging revenue guidance offered by transceiver manufacturers, LightCounting increased projections for market growth in 2010 to 10%. We maintain our double-digit growth forecast for 2011–2013, as the industry will have to catch up with steadily growing demand for bandwidth.
Historical data from 2006 to 2009 supports the findings of the report, as well as a detailed market forecast through 2013, sorted in over 100 product categories, for SONET/SDH, Ethernet, Fibre Channel, CWDM, DWDM, FTTx transceivers, Optical Interconnects and Active Optical Cables (AOC).
Over 25 vendors shared confidential sales data with LightCounting; these figures combined with several other vendors’ to inform the sales data for 2006 to 2009. LightCounting bases the market forecast for 2009 to 2013 on our model correlating transceiver sales with network traffic growth and projected subscribers of FTTx systems.
Sections:
- Abstract and Executive Summary
- Telecom Transceiver Forecast Market Summary and Presented Game Changers, as analyzed per section. (These categories are discussed in more detail in the report. There are several key trends that LightCounting expects to impact the telecom transceiver forecast in the next few years.)
- Section 1: CWDM and DWDM Transceiver Market
- Section 2: SONET/SDH Transceiver Market
- Section 3: FTTx Transceiver Market
- Datacom Transceiver Forecast Market Summary and Presented Game Changers, as analyzed per section. (These categories are discussed in more detail in the report, including overall sales forecasts for these applications. Our forecast does not include potential future consumer applications such as optical USB or HDMI. Two key trends in the datacom /computercom space are the introduction of the next generation of higher-speed modules and the rise of parallel optics after years of niche status, implications covered in the report.)
- Section 4: Ethernet Transceiver Market, for LAN applications
- Section 5: Fibre Channel Transceiver Market, for SAN Applications
- Section 6: Optical Interconnects Market (including router interconnects and active cables), used in HPC and Ethernet Applications
- Forecast Methodology
- Section 8: List of Transceiver Vendors Included in this Report
Figures:
- Figure 1: Worldwide Transceiver Sales 1999-2013 (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 2: Transceiver Sales by Market Segments (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 3: WDM Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 4: WDM Transceiver Sales by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 5: Tunable 10-Gbps WDM Transceiver Unit Shipments by Form Factor (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 6: SONET/SDH Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 7: SONET/SDH Transceiver Sales by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 8: SONET/SDH OC-192 Unit Shipments by Transceiver Form Factor (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 9: SONET/SDH OC-192 Sales by Transceiver Form Factor (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 10: FTTx Transceiver Unit Shipments by Type (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 11: FTTx Transceiver Sales by Type (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 12: Sales of Datacom transceivers by Application (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 13: 10-GigE Transceiver Unit Shipments by Reach (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 14: 10-GigE Unit Shipments by Transceiver Form Factor (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 15: Short-Reach 10-GigE Transceiver Pricing by Transceiver Form Factor (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 16. Ethernet Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 17. 40-GigE and 100-GigE Transceiver Unit Shipments (Forecast)
- Figure 18. Fibre Channel Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 19. Fibre Channel Transceiver Sales by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 20. Optical Interconnect Sales by major product categories (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 21. Router Interconnect Module Unit Shipments by Type* (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 22. Active Optical Cable Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
- Figure 23. Utilized Bandwidth in Core Telecom and FTTx Access Networks
Tables:
- Table 1: Global Transceiver Sales Growth Forecasts Per Segment
- Table 2: Characteristics of current and next generation PONs
- Table 3: LightCounting Aggregated Transceiver Capacity Growth Projections
- Table 4: List of Transceiver Vendors Included in this Report
Appendices:
- Appendix A: Historical Data and Forecast for SONET/SDH Transceiver Shipments
- Appendix B: Historical Data and Forecast for Ethernet Transceiver Shipments
- Appendix C: Historical Data and Forecast for Fibre Channel Transceiver Shipments
- Appendix D: Historical Data and Forecast for CWDM/DWDM Transceiver and Tunable Shipments
- Appendix E: Historical Data and Forecast for FTTx Transceiver Shipments
- Appendix F: Historical Data and Forecast for Optical Interconnect Shipments
 *All the data listed above is also available in Excel spreadsheet formats upon request. Please contact megan@lightcounting.com to requests the .XLS worksheets or more information.
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