The Optical Transceiver Market Forecast Report (September 2009)

$3950 (USD) per report

"Although the biggest market growth is in new product areas such as 40-Gbps WDM on the telco side and SFP+ and optical interconnects on the datacom side, 'legacy' products such as SONET/SDH transceivers have shown good staying power, and we expect the downturn to make incremental customer upgrades using existing products more attractive.” Says Scott Schube, Senior Analyst and Strategist, LightCounting. ”As always, but especially in this environment, transceiver vendors must strike the right balance between supporting legacy products and investing in new R&D, and make sure to squeeze as much business as possible out of already-shipping transceivers with sunk development costs."

LightCounting increases projections for 2009 transceiver sales. However, this will still be an expected moderate decline compared to record sales seen in 2008. Improvements in the forecast are due to higher than expected sales of transceivers by vendors focused on the Asian market.

Global transceiver sales were virtually flat in Q2 2009 after steep declines in the previous two quarters. While this suggests that the market may have rebounded, it is not close to the 20% rise in Q2 2008 sales from a seasonally low Q1. Upward revision in the forecast assumes slight increase in Q3 and Q4 2009 sales, in accordance with guidance from suppliers and their customers.

Considering the uncertainty in the timing of a sustainable economic recovery, we maintain a conservative 5% growth projection for 2010. The modest transceiver market growth expected for 2010 is likely to be followed by a period of double-digit growth in 2011-2013.

This 40-page comprehensive report presents historical data from 2006 to 2008 and a detailed market forecast through 2013 for SONET/SDH, Ethernet, Fibre Channel, CWDM, DWDM, FTTx transceivers, Tunables, Active Optical Cables and Optical Interconnects, sorted in over 120 product categories.

The sales data for 2006 to 2008 account for 30 transceiver vendors, including more than 25 vendors that shared confidential sales data with LightCounting. The market forecast for 2009 to 2013 is based on LightCounting’s model correlating transceiver sales with network traffic growth and projected subscribers of FTTx systems.

Sections:

• Abstract and Executive Summary
• Telecom Transceiver Forecast Market Summary and Presented Game Changers, as analyzed per section.
  • Section 1: CWDM and DWDM Transceiver Market
  • Section 2: SONET/SDH Transceiver Market
  • Section 3: FTTx Transceiver Market
• Datacom Transceiver Forecast Market Summary and Presented Game Changers, as analyzed per section.
  • Section 4: Ethernet Transceiver Market
  • Section 5: Fibre Channel Transceiver Market
  • Section 6: Optical Interconnects Market
  • Section 7: Active Optical Cable Market Update
  • Section 8: Forecast Methodology
  • Section 9: List of Transceiver Vendors Included in this Report

Figures:

• Figure 1: Worldwide Transceiver Sales 1999-2013 (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 2: Transceiver Sales by Market Segments (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 3: WDM Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 4: WDM Transceiver Sales by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 5: Tunable 10-Gbps WDM Transceiver Unit Shipments by Form Factor (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 6: SONET/SDH Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 7: SONET/SDH Transceiver Sales by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 8: SONET/SDH OC-192 Unit Shipments by Transceiver Form Factor (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 9: SONET/SDH OC-192 Sales by Transceiver Form Factor (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 10: FTTx Transceiver Unit Shipments by Type (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 11: FTTx Transceiver Sales by Type (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 12: Parallel Optical Transceiver Unit Shipments by Application (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 13: 10-GigE Transceiver Unit Shipments by Reach (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 14: 10-GigE Unit Shipments by Transceiver Form Factor (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 15: Short-Reach 10-GigE Transceiver Pricing by Transceiver Form Factor (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 16. Ethernet Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
  Figure 17. 40-GigE and 100-GigE Transceiver Unit Shipments (Forecast)
• Figure 18. Fibre Channel Transceiver Unit Shipments by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 19. Fibre Channel Transceiver Sales by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 20. Optical Interconnect Unit Shipments by Application (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 21. Router Interconnect Module Unit Shipments by Type* (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 22. Active Optical Cable Sales by Data Rate (Historical Data and Forecast)
• Figure 23. Utilized Bandwidth in Core Telecom and FTTx Access Networks

Tables:

• Table 1: Global Transceiver Dynamics Per Segment
• Table 2: Characteristics of current and next generation PONs
• Table 3: LightCounting Aggregated Transceiver Capacity Growth Projections
• Table 4: List of Transceiver Vendors Included in this Report

Appendices:

• Appendix A: Historical Data and Forecast for SONET/SDH Transceiver Shipments
• Appendix B: Historical Data and Forecast for Ethernet Transceiver Shipments
• Appendix C: Historical Data and Forecast for Fibre Channel Transceiver Shipments
• Appendix D: Historical Data and Forecast for CWDM and DWDM Transceiver Shipments
• Appendix E: Historical Data and Forecast for FTTx Transceiver Shipments
• Appendix F: Historical Data and Forecast for Optical Interconnect Shipments

*All the data listed above is also available in Excel spreadsheet formats upon request. Please contact megan@lightcounting.com to requests the .XLS worksheets or more information.