View Larger

Abstract

With 1Gb Ethernet, users only accessed the local area network (LAN). They were able to access files (given the right security access) stored on the internal storage of servers or other clients, or they could access files through specialized network attached storage (NAS) devices. However, to access high performance block level storage, users had to install an additional Fibre Channel storage area network (SAN) network by adding cards to their servers and an extra set of switches and target storage boxes. All this is changing at 10Gbps Ethernet. Beginning with 10GigE, block-level storage traffic will inevitably join file-access traffic on the Ethernet LAN via both Fibre Channel over Ethernet (FCoE) and Internet Small Computer System Interface (iSCSI). But when? LightCounting has a wealth of Fibre Channel shipment data going back to 2005 showing the rise and fall of 1, 2, 4, and 8 Gbps versions of the standard and emergence of the 16 Gbps version. This report provides LightCounting's forecast for Fibre Channel SAN transceivers as well as server and switch port shipments and the associated server and switch port revenues for Fibre Channel, 10GigE overall, FCoE, and iSCSI. We also discuss emerging trends in storage as the industry has moved to new forms of computing such as Web 2.0 storage implementations and the cloud.

Table of Contents

• Abstract
• Major Findings
• Table of Contents
• Chapter One: Several Types of Storage Networking - Which Will Dominate?
  • DAS and Distributed DAS
  • Distributed DAS, the Cloud Expandss DAS Usage
  • NAS
  • NAS Is and Will Continue to be Widely Used
  • Fibre Channel: The Dominant Network Storage Standard
  • Extensive Validation, No Dropped Packets Drives Acceptance of Fibre Channel
  • iSCSI: Simpler, Lower Cost Block Network Storage
  • iSCSI: The Poor Man's SAN
  • FCoE: An Upgrade for Fibre Channel?
  • Standardized, End-to-End Implementation of FCoE Still Several Years Out
• Chapter Two: Shifts in Stored Data Drive New Standards
  • Structured versus Unstructured Data
  • Web 2.0 Computing Architecture
  • Cloud Computing and Storage
  • Multitenancy is the Key to Cloud Computing
  • Cloud Architecture vs Business Model: Who Controls the Data
• Chapter Three: Barriers to Entry for iSCSI and FCoE
  • Data Center Buying Centers Are Not Aligned with Network and Storage Purchases
  • 10GBASE-T Bit Error Rates Too Low for FCoE
  • Server OEMs Offer Unique, Nonstandard FC and FCoE Solutions
  • HP's Virtual Connect Simplifies Complex I/O
  • IBM's Virtual Fabric Helps Users Get the Most from its BladeCenter
  • Cisco is the Only OEM with a Fully Credible FCoE Strategy
  • FC-BB-5 Helps Cisco But FC-BB-6 Needed for FCoE to Become a True Standard
• Chapter Four: Intel Server Microarchitecture Roadmap Provides Network Storage Timeline
  • iSCSI to Ride 10GBASE-T Wave, FCoE to Ride SFP+
• Chapter Five: Key Network Storage OEMs
  • Brocade Fibre Channel Revenues Slip
  • Cisco Restructures
  • Dell: Proprietary Storage Revenues Grow
  • Emulex Host Bus Adapters and LOMs for Ethernet Thriving
  • Hewlett-Packard Announces Major Restructuring
  • IBM is Firing on All Cylinders
  • Juniper Networks is Growing Market Share But QFabric Transition May be Problematic
  • QLogic is the Market Leader for Host Bus Adapters
• Chapter Six: Network Storage Forecast: Fibre Channel to Fade Starting in 2014 as Ethernet Takes on Storage
  • Network Storage Analysis and Forecast Methodology
  • Top-Down Analysis
  • Bottom-Up Analysis
  • Market Erosion and Overall Expansion
  • Demand Factors
  • Merging SANs/LANs Provide Strong Financial Incentive But Adoption Will Be Slow
  • Virtualization Changes the Game
  • FCoE Will Occur on Optical Networks, 10Gbps iSCSI on Copper Networks
  • Three Phases of FCoE Converged Networking
  • Network Storage Market Forces and Forecast Unknowns
  • Port Shipments and Revenue Forecast and Analysis: Fibre Channel
  • Quarterly Shipments and Revenues of Fibre Channel Transceivers
  • Historical and Forecast Shipments and Revenues of Fibre Channel Transceivers
  • HIstorical and Forecast Shipments and Revenues of Fibre Channel Ports
  • Port Shipments and Revenue Forecast and Analysis: 10Gbps Ethernet
  • Quarterly Port Shipments and Revenues of 10 Gb Ethernet Transceivers
  • Historical and Forecast Shipments and Revenues of 10 Gb Ethernet Transceivers
  • Historical and Forecast Shipments and Revenue of 10 Gb Ethernet Ports
  • Port Shipments and Revenue Forecast Analysis: FCoE and 10Gbps iSCSI
  • FCoE and 10 Gb iSCSI versus Fibre Channel
  • 10 Gbps iSCSI to Jump in 2014 Along with 10GBASE-T
  • FCoE, Supported by Cisco is Catching On, But Full Industry Support is Waiting for 2014
• Conclusions