LightTrends Newsletter

China skews another extraordinary quarter

November 2020

As we rightly anticipated, China’s 5G rollout surge combined with strong activity in North America and North East Asia produced a robust 3Q20 wireless infrastructure market that was marked by double digit growth year over year. In addition, China’s aggressive move to 5G standalone (SA) mode fueled the 5G core (5GC) market, keeping it above the size of the mature 4G evolved packet core (EPC) market; North America and South Korea also contributed to significant 5GC sales.
All this sustained Huawei’s and ZTE’s total wireless infrastructure market shares that were lifted in 2Q20. In addition, Ericsson gained shares at the expense of Huawei and ZTE, and Mavenir reported an exceptional mobile vEPC quarter that propelled the vendor into the major EPC league.
For the rest of the year, while COVID-19 continues to affect many markets in EMEA and CALA, we expect China, North America and North East Asia to continue to execute their respective 5G agendas. As a result, we have raised our 2020 forecast in these regions and our updated total wireless infrastructure market forecast is now 3.9% higher than it was in our 2Q20 report.
In the long run, after regional revisions that consider each region’s current status and 5-year plans, LightCounting’s Wireless Infrastructure market forecast for worldwide sales of wireless network nodes based on our service-provider 20-year wireless infrastructure footprint pattern analysis is bell-shaped and points to a 2019-2025 CAGR of 0%. The forecast reflects the differences in regional and national agendas, including COVID-19 impacts and the rise of open RAN.
About the report:
This report analyzes the 3Q20 wireless infrastructure market worldwide and covers 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G radio access network (RAN) and core network nodes. It presents historical data from 2016 to 2019, quarterly market size and vendor market shares, and a detailed market forecast through 2025 for 2G/3G/4G/5G RAN, including open vRAN and open RAN, and core networks (e.g., EPC, vEPC and 5GC), in over 10 product categories for each region (e.g., North America, Europe, Middle East Africa, Asia Pacific, Caribbean Latin America). The historical data accounts for sales of more than 30 wireless infrastructure vendors, including a few vendors that shared confidential sales data with LightCounting. The market forecast is based on a model correlating wireless infrastructure vendor sales with 20 years of service provider network rollout patterns analysis, and upgrades and expansion plans.

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