Research Note

Abstract

LightCounting publishes Research Note and forecast for 25G and 50G PON Deployments of FTTx accelerated in 2021 and LightCounting raised its forecast for this market segment in 2022-2027, driven by strong uptake of 10G PON (see LightCounting’s April 2022 forecast). With 10G PON deployment well underway, the industry is looking at what will come next. What is the best option? 25G, 50G, and 100G/200G PONs have been considered as successors to 10G PON by the IEEE, ITU, FSAN and other standards bodies. Symmetric 25G PON has no standard but instead an active MSA with 17 members including AOi, AT&T, Ciena, Chunghwa, and Nokia. Among leading access equipment vendors, Nokia has emerged as a champion of 25G PON and already has a commercial 25G-capable combi-PON OLT available (which they call ‘multi-PON’). On the other hand, Huawei has gone all-in on 50G-PON, supported by the big three Chinese network operators. Network operators around the world are likewise divided into camps favoring 25G and those supporting a move directly to 50G from today’s almost universal favorite XG(S)-PON. Against this backdrop, LightCounting looked at the history of similar optical speed transitions, those from 10G to 40G/100G Ethernet, and from 100G to 200G/400G, for insight into how this PON transition is likely to happen. The full text of the research note is available to LightCounting subscribers by logging into their accounts.