Market Report

November 2021 Next Generation Access Optics

November 2021

Report Abstract

LightCounting’s Next Generation Access Optics report describes the market outlook for both Fiber-to-the-X (FTTx) optics and wireless fronthaul, midhaul, and backhaul network optics.

Mobile fronthaul is again a fast growing segment of the optical modules market, driven by 5G mobile network deployment (as it was previously due to 4G deployment). ‘Fiber-to-the-X’ is a key enabler of today’s high-speed Internet, and advanced broadband networks are considered essential infrastructure to support future economic growth. In 2020, we estimate these two types of access networks combined will consume an estimated 96 million optical devices, worth more than $1.5 billion in revenue to components makers.

This report covers current and future network access architectures, service provider deployment strategies and trends, component requirements, and the products needed. Tutorials on mobile fronthaul, FTTx, and cable TV networks are included as well. A detailed Excel spreadsheet accompanies the report, providing a five-year forecast of wireless and FTTx optics shipments, prices, and revenues, broken down by speeds, reaches, and colors.

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John Lively

About the Author

John Lively, Principal Analyst

John Lively is a Principal Analyst with Lightcounting, a market research firm focused on opto-electronic components for telecom and data center applications.

John has more than 25 years of experience in telecoms market research, starting as an in-house analyst with Corning Incorporated’s optical fiber and photonics businesses, and then with market research firms RHK and Ovum, before joining Lightcounting in 2014.

During his career he has published over 170 reports on various aspects of the telecoms industry. His “New Revenues in Telecoms” report was Ovum’s most widely downloaded report in both 2011 and 2012. He was among the first to highlight the importance of services to telecom equipment vendors in a March 2008 report titled “Service business is key to infrastructure vendor profits”. He predicted the success of mobile broadband in February 2008, in a note titled “Mobile: Challenging fixed lines for broadband”, and his December 2007 report “Impact of the credit crunch on telecoms - a shift to the East”, was among the first to predict that the global financial crisis would bring Chinese companies to pre-eminence, and reshape the telecoms industry.

Prior to joining Lightcounting, John served as Vice President and Principal Analyst at Ovum, where he delivered telecom-focused market research on a variety of topics, including wireless backhaul and ICT services. As Chief Forecaster, Mr. Lively created and managed Ovum’s forecast quality process, incorporating best practices into all of Ovum’s forecast products.

From 2000-2005, John was a group director at RHK, where his work addressed optical components, broadband access technologies, optical networks, internet traffic modeling, and service provider financial analysis. Before RHK, John worked for Corning Inc for 15 years, holding market analysis and product marketing roles at Corning’s optical fiber and photonics businesses.

He received an MBA from MIT with concentrations in IT management and service operations, and a BA from Amherst College.

John has given numerous presentations at industry events and has been quoted in many news outlets including the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily, USA Today, The Guardian (UK), and the Globe and Mail (Toronto).

He is also an Adjunct Professor of Business at Corning Community College in Corning, New York, where he teaches introductory economics and management.

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